Putin's warning over Kaliningrad
Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that Russia would employ every weapon in its arsenal if it judged that Kaliningrad, the Russian exclave on the Baltic Sea, had come under direct attack. The Russian president maintained that Moscow was not threatening anyone and was merely answering Western leaders who say his country is preparing for war in 2029 or 2030.[S1]
Earlier in the week, Russia accused NATO of preparing to blockade its territory, which borders Lithuania and Poland, and warned it would even be ready to use nuclear weapons if the West tried to cut Kaliningrad off from the rest of Russia. NATO has sought to lower the temperature, describing itself as a defensive alliance and urging Moscow to end its nuclear threats.[S1]
In recent months, Western allies have faced a rise in so-called hybrid-warfare incidents attributed to Russia, particularly in Poland and the Baltic states. Last week alone, Poland reported that a Russian helicopter had entered its airspace in an area bordering Kaliningrad. Lithuania, for its part, said its population feels constantly threatened by Russia, partly because of drone incursions into its airspace.[S1]
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Thursday that Germany is preparing for further hybrid attacks, including some of a serious nature, after a drone carrying explosives was found in August on the runway at Leipzig airport, near Ukrainian cargo aircraft.[S1]
Valdai speech and blame on the West
In an extended address at the Valdai foreign-policy forum, Putin said he considered it highly likely that international conflicts would continue and added that the situation would improve as Western hegemony weakens. Although the Russian leader himself launched the full-scale war in Ukraine in February 2022, he again blamed the West for provoking the invasion and said Moscow had been forced to defend itself and take up arms.[S1]
He also insisted that Russian strikes on Ukrainian economic targets were a direct response to Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries and its ships in the Black Sea. Putin acknowledged that Kyiv had achieved some results with its attacks on refineries and that Russia had lost around 1% of its GDP. Ukraine says it began striking Russian oil infrastructure because it helped the Kremlin finance the war.[S1]
Russia, for its part, has carried out attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure and has stepped them up every winter since the war began. Other civilian infrastructure is also being hit. On Thursday, for example, drones struck a key bridge in Kyiv. Putin also accused the West of instigating other conflicts.[S1]
Putin said that if there were a direct attack on the Russian Federation, in this case Kaliningrad but possibly other territories too, the question of using all the weapons at the country's disposal would inevitably and immediately be on the table. He also accused NATO of conducting naval maneuvers in the Baltic Sea that, according to the president, pose serious threats to Kaliningrad.[S1]
Nuclear rhetoric and NATO's response
Putin said that if the territory were placed under a Western blockade, Russia would be ready to use all means and forces, including nuclear ones. He added that Moscow was not threatening anyone and had no intention of attacking anyone in 2029, 2030 or 2050, but that it would have to respond if it faced aggression, and that citizens of European countries should be fully aware of this. He also said that while he was aware of the nuclear capabilities of countries such as the United Kingdom and France, the weapons at Moscow's disposal had no equal.[S1]
Western leaders have long feared that, rather than invading Kaliningrad, Russia might exploit the relatively short distance between the exclave and its ally Belarus, known as the Suwałki corridor, if it tried to seize Lithuanian territory by force. Lithuania's prime minister told the BBC last week that his country had drawn up evacuation plans in case of a Russian invasion and that thousands of NATO soldiers are deployed there.[S1]
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte made clear on Wednesday that none of the alliance's exercises or activities posed a threat to Moscow and that the Kremlin's message was absolutely unjustified and unhelpful. Putin also spoke about how the world's leading countries possess weaponry capable of ending all life or at least bringing catastrophic consequences to Earth, and said that unfortunately no one could be sure it would never be used.[S1]
Putin drew an analogy with a weapon placed on a theater stage: if it were hanging there at the start of the performance, it would certainly be fired by the end. He appeared to call for a review of the rules of war and warned of the growing risks associated with artificial intelligence. He said the automation and digitalization of war lead to its gamification, causing a degradation and a regression of humanity toward barbarism.[S1]
