What the orange alert covers
The National Meteorological Service issued an orange alert for strong storms for Wednesday, 7 October, covering parts of Buenos Aires province, including Buenos Aires City and the wider metropolitan area, as well as areas of Entre Ríos, Santa Fe, Córdoba, San Luis and La Pampa. A yellow alert is simultaneously in force in other regions of the country. The warning anticipates severe storms, some locally intense, which may bring abundant rainfall in short periods, hail of various sizes, frequent electrical activity and strong gusts.[S1][S2]
For the zones under the orange alert, accumulated rainfall is estimated at between 50 and 80 millimetres, although records could exceed those figures in isolated cases. In the north of the Litoral region, expected totals may range from 70 to 100 millimetres, with the possibility of surpassing those values at particular points.[S1]
A yellow alert for storms also remains in place for parts of Buenos Aires, Entre Ríos, Santa Fe, Corrientes, Chaco, Santiago del Estero, Córdoba, San Luis, Mendoza and La Pampa. In those regions, accumulations of 20 to 50 millimetres are expected, along with possible hail, electrical activity and gusts.[S1]
Timing of the storms in Buenos Aires
In Buenos Aires City and the conurbano, the period of greatest instability is expected during Wednesday afternoon. The service anticipates that the storms may gain intensity and cause complications through water accumulation, gusts and the possible fall of hail. The warning also reaches various parts of Buenos Aires province; in some areas the orange notice holds through the afternoon and the first hours of the night, while other zones stay at yellow level.[S1]
The sharp change in the weather will be felt from the morning of Wednesday, 7 October. During the first hours of the day, the probability of precipitation will sit between 10% and 40%, accompanied by north-easterly winds with gusts of between 42 and 50 km/h and a minimum temperature of 14 degrees. The heaviest stretch of the storm will concentrate between midday and the afternoon, when the agency forecasts strong storms with a rain probability of between 40% and 70%.[S1]
The wind will rotate towards the south-east with sustained gusts of up to 50 km/h, holding back the rise in temperature and leaving a maximum of 18 degrees. Towards the night, isolated storms will continue, maintaining the same instability and a temperature of around 16 degrees.[S1]
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Wind warnings and the rest of the country
The service also issued a yellow alert for wind for the south-east of Buenos Aires province, where speeds of between 40 and 50 km/h are expected and gusts could reach 70 km/h. In the west of Salta, Catamarca and La Rioja, more intense winds are forecast, with gusts that could exceed 100 km/h.[S1]
The episode of instability also affects other provinces, with zones under orange and yellow alerts for storms and strong gusts. Broad areas of Buenos Aires province remain under a storm alert, with the possibility of intense rain, electrical activity and gusts. Santa Fe, Entre Ríos, Córdoba and La Pampa have areas under meteorological warnings. Storms are also expected in parts of Santiago del Estero, Salta, Jujuy, San Juan, Mendoza, Catamarca and Tucumán, while Neuquén and Río Negro in northern Patagonia have sectors under alert for strong winds and isolated storms.[S1]
Recommendations and the outlook for the coming days
Given the possibility of strong storms, people are advised to avoid travelling during the most intense moments, to stay in safe places and to move indoors any objects that could be displaced by the wind. It is also important to keep away from trees, poles and structures that could fall, and to avoid travelling along flooded streets. The service recommends following official updates while the alert remains in force.[S1]
Conditions will gradually improve over the following days, leaving a variable picture ahead of the long weekend. On Thursday, 8 October, the sky will be mostly cloudy with a very low probability of precipitation of 0 to 10%; the minimum will be 14 degrees and the maximum around 19 degrees, with south-easterly gusts of up to 50 km/h. On Friday, 9 October, there will be slight instability towards the afternoon or night, with a minimal chance of isolated rains of between 0 and 10%, and temperatures from 14 to 18 degrees.[S1]
On Saturday, 10 October, the early hours and morning will remain with isolated rains of 10 to 40%, improving towards the afternoon with a mostly cloudy sky, and marks from 13 to 18 degrees. On Sunday, 11 October, the precipitation will cease definitively, with a partly to mostly cloudy sky, a cool morning of 14 degrees and a pleasant afternoon with a maximum of 19 degrees.[S1]
