Rebel Advance on the Coast
Yemen's Houthi rebels are pressing to take full control of the country's Red Sea coastline, saying they have captured the key port of Mocha. The fighting marks the most severe outbreak of violence with the Saudi-backed government in years. According to the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based defense and security think tank, the situation in Yemen is spiraling out of control, and the UN-recognized Yemeni government is opening new fronts against the Houthis in the hope of applying more pressure than the rebels can bear.[S1]
According to the Houthis, their forces now hold Hays, an inland city, along with the Khalid ibn al-Walid camp, which they describe as the region's biggest military installation. A rebel-linked assessment put their territorial gains at over 2,320 square miles (6,000 sq km). Major General Tareq Saleh, who leads the Yemeni government forces, confirmed a deliberate pullback south of Mocha to regroup somewhere safer, stating his troops suffered many martyrs and wounded while facing what he called an Iranian-planned and Iranian-backed assault.[S1]
Airstrikes, Casualties, and Regional Fallout
On Thursday, Saudi Arabia carried out up to 40 air raids against Houthi positions, leveraging its command of the skies, even as government sources conceded that the rebels had advanced on the ground along the coast and fired missiles at the Red Sea islands of Zuqar and Hanish. The conflict monitor Acled counted 276 deaths in just five days. The current round of fighting was triggered by Houthi drone and ballistic missile attacks on Saudi energy facilities and southern cities, which drew at least 15 Saudi strikes from 3 to 7 September. Battles have erupted in Ad Dali, al-Bayda, Marib, Shabwah, al-Jawf, Hodeidah, and Taiz.[S1]
The escalation has prompted speculation about whether Saudi Arabia might invoke the Mecca defense agreement and call on its fellow signatories, Pakistan and Turkey, to contribute troops. That pact is framed as defensive and is widely thought not to cover Saudi operations in Yemen. By capturing more of the coastline south of Hodeidah, the Houthis aim to force Saudi Arabia and the US into an agreement that would end the American blockade on Iranian oil tankers in the Gulf. Donald Trump said on Wednesday he did not anticipate the war with Iran concluding before the US midterm elections in early November.[S1]
Strategic Stakes and Oil Prices
If the Houthis take the coast, it would be a strategic catastrophe for Saudi Arabia and the US, allowing Iran and its allies to move closer to controlling two maritime chokepoints for western shipping on either side of the Arabian peninsula: Bab al-Mandeb at the Red Sea's southern entrance and the Strait of Hormuz in the Gulf. Analysts believe a de-escalation is now improbable, interpreting the Houthi offensive as an effort to create a second front in the Iran-US conflict alongside the struggle over Hormuz. The violence has driven oil prices past $100 a barrel after weeks hovering around $80.[S1]
The Houthis are counting on political rifts within Yemen's government, evident in its lack of a unified military, to slowly tilt the balance in their favor. The United Arab Emirates, formerly a major force in southern Yemen where it supported the separatist Southern Transitional Council, ended its financial and military backing around the start of the year, and southern fighters have declined to battle beyond their home areas. Sherwan Hindreen Ali, a Yemen analyst at Acled, said a near-term reduction in hostilities looks unlikely as both sides intensify attacks to inflict enough harm to compel a settlement, noting the two sides are now more evenly matched militarily than before the 2022 ceasefire.[S1]
How the Escalation Unfolded
The path to this week's full-scale fighting was incremental. It started when a high-level Houthi delegation, part of a long and complicated partnership with Iran, traveled to Tehran in July for the funeral of Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei, then returned aboard an Iranian aircraft that the Saudis barred from landing in rebel-held Sana'a. In response, the Saudis struck the runway, prompting the Houthis to declare a Red Sea naval blockade against Saudi Arabia, which they called a blockade for a blockade. That 20 July declaration was followed by an attack on Saudi Arabia's Jazan refinery on 25 July and on a tanker near Yanbu on 24 August. Saudi Arabia now depends on the Red Sea route for trade after Iran restricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz in the wake of US-Israeli attacks.[S1]
