Sentiment edges down but beats forecasts
The University of Michigan's final October reading of its consumer sentiment survey came in at 48, according to the university's Friday release. That was above the 46.3 consensus economists had projected, which matched the preliminary figure, and marginally under September's final 48.1. The result left the index essentially flat on the month, with the report describing the move as a fraction of a single point.[S1]
Joanne Hsu, who directs the Surveys of Consumers, said in the report that gains among Republicans and Democrats were offset by losses among independents. She also noted that views on business conditions a year out had improved by roughly 14% but remained 16% weaker than in October of last year.[S1]
Durable-goods buying drags current conditions
Hsu attributed the month's drop in the Current Conditions subindex entirely to buying conditions for durable goods, which fell 18% as higher interest rates and affordability worries weighed on shoppers. She said purchasing power remains the dominant factor shaping how consumers see the economy, with sentiment now 10% below its level a year ago and 15% below February, before the Iran conflict.[S1]
Inflation expectations climb for a second month
The final October data showed year-ahead inflation expectations rising to 4.7% from 4.6% in September. Hsu said that figure is well above the 3.4% recorded in February before the Iran conflict and above every 2024 reading. Longer-run expectations moved from 3.4% to 3.5%, above the 2.8% to 3.2% band seen in 2024. Both horizons rose for a second consecutive month to their highest since May.[S1]
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Gold stays pinned near the $4,000 line
Spot gold held close to the $4,000 support area in the minutes after the 10 am ET release, last trading at $4,014.71 an ounce, a gain of 0.24% on the day, Kitco reported. Other outlets framed the same session around the metal hovering near that round number as sentiment steadied and inflation expectations firmed.[S1][S2]
Separate coverage described gold sliding back toward $4,000 as its haven appeal weakened, while another report placed the metal near a three-month low amid volatility tied to artificial-intelligence jitters.[S3][S4]
