Oil and gas drive wholesale prices up 3.2%
Argentina's wholesale inflation accelerated to 3.2% in September, the highest monthly rate since April, when it reached 5.2%, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC). The increase was driven by a 3.4% rise in national products, while imported goods rose only 0.4%. The wholesale price index (IPIM) accumulated a 22.8% increase in the first nine months of 2026 and a 29.2% year-on-year rise. Retail inflation for September was 1.9%, meaning wholesale prices outpaced consumer prices by 1.3 percentage points.[S1][S2][S3][S5]
Within national products, crude oil and gas made the largest contribution, adding 1.43 percentage points to the overall monthly variation. Prices in that segment jumped 15% in September. Other significant contributors included agricultural products, which rose 2.6% and added 0.30 percentage points; refined petroleum products, up 2.2% with a 0.28-point contribution; food and beverages, up 1.7% with 0.20 points; and chemical substances and products, up 1.6% with 0.16 points. The surge in oil prices was linked to the international context, particularly the war between the United States and Iran, which has added pressure on the energy market.[S1][S2][S3][S5]
Other price indices show similar acceleration
The basic wholesale price index (IPIB), which excludes taxes included in the IPIM, rose 3.4% in September, with national products up 3.7% and imported products up 0.3%. The producer price index (IPP), which measures prices received by local producers and excludes imported goods, increased 3.8% for the month, driven by a 7.9% rise in primary products, a 2.1% increase in manufactured goods, and a 4.1% rise in electricity. In the first nine months of the year, the IPIB accumulated a 22.2% increase and the IPP 22.7%, while their year-on-year variations reached 28.1% and 29.5%, respectively.[S2][S4][S5]
The September wholesale inflation reading marked the third-highest monthly level of 2026, behind March (3.4%) and May (2.5%). The index had been on a downward path since April, when it hit 5.2%, slowing to 2.5% in May, 1.1% in June, and 0.8% in July, before accelerating again to 2.1% in August and 3.2% in September. In the year-to-date comparison, crude oil and gas accumulated a 77.1% increase, electricity rose 54.5%, refined petroleum products climbed 34.2%, fishery products advanced 25.2%, and chemical substances and products increased 24%. At the other end, motor vehicles and parts rose only 7.8%, radio and television equipment 8.7%, machinery and equipment 8.1%, and basic metal products 7.8%. Imported products accumulated a 12.1% rise so far this year.[S2][S3][S5]
Construction costs and outlook
The construction cost index for Greater Buenos Aires rose 1.5% in September compared to the previous month, according to INDEC. The increase was driven by a 1.6% rise in labor costs, a 1.5% increase in general expenses, and a 1.3% rise in materials. The labor component incorporated the UOCRA wage agreement of September 21, which was homologated at the end of the month and applied from September. General expenses reflected updates in electricity tariffs for Edenor and Edesur and in gas connection values.[S1]
Analysts at the consulting firm LCG noted that wholesale inflation will remain conditioned by the evolution of the exchange rate and international oil prices. They pointed out that the exchange rate has been relatively stable in October, while oil prices, despite high volatility linked to the Middle East conflict, are already at levels that leave little room for further significant increases with Brent at US$110 per barrel. LCG projected a slowdown in wholesale inflation from current levels, though they did not rule out isolated jumps tied to oil movements, and forecast a year-on-year variation close to 30% for December. The CEPEC consultancy commented that the monthly rise reflects an acceleration of wholesale costs, heavily concentrated in the energy sector, and represents a challenge for the government's disinflation strategy.[S1][S2]
