Revised quarterly growth and annual picture
UK gross domestic product is now estimated to have expanded by 0.5% in the second quarter of 2026, covering April to June, according to the Office for National Statistics. That is a 0.1 percentage point upgrade from the previous estimate of 0.4%. The first quarter of 2026, January to March, saw unrevised growth of 0.6%. For 2025 as a whole, GDP growth has been revised down by 0.1 percentage points to 1.2%. Compared with the fourth quarter of 2024, the level of GDP in the second quarter of 2026 is now thought to be 2.0% higher, revised up from an initial 1.9%.[S1]
According to the ONS, GDP readings for each quarter of 2025 and 2026 were adjusted by amounts between -0.2 and +0.1 percentage points, while the overall gain across the period stayed broadly the same. The changes reflect Blue Book 2026 methodology plus fresh inputs such as VAT turnover data for the first quarter of 2026. In the third and fourth quarters of 2025, GDP is now derived by averaging the three measurement approaches instead of relying on the output approach alone.[S1]
Household finances and external position
Household real disposable income per person climbed 1.0% in the second quarter of 2026, reversing a 0.8% fall in the first quarter. The saving ratio for households moved up 0.2 percentage points to 8.8%, with non-pension saving contributing more. At the same time, the UK's net borrowing position relative to the rest of the world fell to 2.8% of GDP in the second quarter, from 2.9% in the first quarter.[S1]
Real GDP per head grew by 0.5% in the second quarter and is up 1.2% compared with the same quarter a year earlier. Nominal GDP increased by an unrevised 0.8% in the quarter and is 3.8% higher year on year. The implied GDP deflator, a broad measure of domestic inflation, rose by 2.4% compared with the same quarter a year ago, mainly due to household expenditure, exports and gross capital formation.[S1]
Sector output and revision context
Output rose by 0.5% in the second quarter of 2026, with increases in 13 of the 20 subsectors of GDP. The services sector grew by 0.6%, construction by 0.8%, while production fell by 0.1%. The ONS attributes the output revisions to late responses to the Monthly Business Survey, the incorporation of VAT data for the first quarter of 2026, a review of seasonal adjustment models, and updated industry weights.[S1]
The ONS cautions that early GDP estimates are subject to revision. Since the first quarter of 2000, the average revision between the first and final estimates has been positive 0.08 percentage points, with a mean absolute revision of 0.24 percentage points. The latest release is consistent with the forthcoming Blue Book 2026, due on 30 October 2026. Ahead of the release, analysts had expected the quarterly growth figure to remain at 0.4%, with the Bank of England holding Bank Rate at 3.75% on 17 September, following a cut in December 2025. The next rate decision is scheduled for 5 November.[S1][S2]
