Record Deficit Driven by Export Collapse and Import Surge
Britain's food and drink trade shortfall has climbed past £21bn, marking the widest margin since 2000. During the first six months of 2026, export volumes declined 11.7% to 4bn kg, a figure only slightly higher than the troughs recorded during the Covid pandemic and the 2001 foot-and-mouth crisis. The Food & Drink Federation (FDF), which carried out the analysis, linked the drop to a combination of Brexit expenses, Middle Eastern conflict and fresh US tariffs. Imports over the same period totaled 19.1bn kg, the second-largest ever recorded and just under last year's high.[S1]
Sales to the EU fell by 0.9% in value, reflecting the extra expense and complexity of trading after Brexit. Exports to countries outside the EU dropped even more sharply, down 6.9% in value. A major factor was disruption to Middle East trade, with exports to the UAE falling by nearly a quarter due to the US-Israel war on Iran. Across the Atlantic, the US introduction of a 10% import tariff cut sales by 16.5%. On the import side, goods from outside the EU have risen by more than a fifth since 2023 as trade deals, particularly with Australia, have eased restrictions. Australian shipments to the UK are up 25% in value year-on-year, including meat, oils, vegetables and even whisky.[S1]
Industry Leaders Warn Food Security Is National Security
Tom Bradshaw, who leads the National Farmers' Union of England and Wales, called the numbers a wake-up call. He said that as geopolitical instability mounts, the nation cannot assume its food production capacity will remain intact. According to Bradshaw, the growing deficit underscores the need for a long-term strategy to back British production and to acknowledge that food security equals national security. He highlighted severe strains on farm businesses, including climbing costs, regulatory demands, severe weather and volatile global markets, and pressed the government to foster conditions that give businesses confidence to invest, innovate and expand.[S1]
The FDF, which speaks for hundreds of food and beverage manufacturers, said the pressures on producers are substantial and mounting as energy, ingredient, transport, packaging and labour expenses keep climbing. It also pointed to shifting regulation as a further strain. Karen Betts, the trade body's chief executive, observed that the deficit is now the biggest in more than a quarter-century and raises serious questions about food security in a world troubled by conflict and climate change. She criticised the government's move to scrap tariffs on goods such as biscuits brought in from China, saying it is no surprise they will undercut UK-made biscuits on price.[S1]
