A Test for Burnham and Polanski
Voting has ended in the Holborn and St Pancras byelection, a race widely viewed as a measure of whether Andy Burnham can hold Labour's coalition together or whether Zack Polanski can pull support away from the party's progressive flank. Labour is trying to keep the north London seat that Keir Starmer previously held, where he won by a margin above 11,000 votes at the 2024 general election. The contest is also an early gauge of the political climate under Burnham, who has been prime minister for nearly three months.[S1][S2][S3][S4][S5][S6][S7][S8]
This contest marks Burnham's first real test at the ballot box since he replaced Starmer in July, and it plays into a wider contest for younger left-leaning voters who turned away from Labour during Starmer's tenure, citing housing, the climate emergency and Gaza. Polanski has waged a vigorous campaign backed by thousands of activists, departing his party's conference right after speaking in order to demonstrate that he and the Greens pose a genuine challenge to Labour, polling notwithstanding.[S1]
Green Hopes and Polling Shifts
The Greens want to replicate their February byelection triumph in Gorton and Denton, where they took a seat previously held by Labour. Yet circumstances have moved on. Not long after that Greater Manchester result, YouGov had the Greens at 21%, slightly ahead of Labour. The newest YouGov poll, by contrast, showed the Greens trailing Burnham's Labour by 16 points, with Labour on 27%. That survey landed as Burnham used his first party conference as prime minister to make a bolder appeal to progressives.[S1]
Holborn and St Pancras is home to many students, renters and younger residents, with close to half the population aged 18 to 34 and roughly 45% born outside the UK. Polanski has contended that sending him to Westminster would push Labour toward bolder measures, such as tougher rent controls, more decisive climate action and bringing Thames Water into public hands. Yet the Green leader has also drawn scrutiny over his authority, facing claims he struggled to explain his position on motions that became party policy at conference.[S1]
Campaign Close and Candidates
Speaking to the Guardian last Friday, Polanski called the race probably 50/50 and really on a knife-edge, while maintaining that his leadership would not hinge on the outcome. Pressed on whether a loss would weaken him, he replied that it did not depend on it whatsoever. Some senior Greens privately worry that defeat could do serious harm to his standing, amid doubts that the party's growing membership has not converted into a campaigning edge.[S1]
Labour's candidate is Sagal Abdi-Wali, 42, who leads Camden council and came to Britain as a child refugee after her family escaped civil war in Somalia. She has stressed her deep ties to the area, casting herself as locally rooted, and points to her background in community work, homelessness and housing policy. The campaign's final days were dominated by a Green party dispute after members at conference backed a motion likening Zionism to racism, carried by 1,022 votes to 813 despite four of the party's five MPs objecting. Polanski, who is Jewish, left conference early to campaign in north London and did not take part in the vote.[S1]
What the Result Will Reveal
The outcome may reveal whether Burnham's improved national standing is carrying over into Labour's inner-city heartlands, and whether the Greens can keep drawing younger and progressive voters. It will likewise test Polanski's claim that the Greens can press the government from the left, even as Labour tries to win back those it lost under Starmer. Voting ended at 10pm on Thursday, with the result expected between 2:30am and 4am on Friday.[S1]
