A meeting in Bangkok with praise for fiscal discipline
Economy Minister Luis Caputo met IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva on Tuesday in Bangkok, Thailand, where the annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank are taking place. After the encounter, Caputo highlighted the praise his fiscal policy received, while confirming that the third review of the agreement is still pending and that technical teams will keep working to finish it. Caputo wrote on X that the meeting with Georgieva, Dan Katz and their teams was excellent and that they went through all internal and external topics. He also mentioned the participation of other IMF officials.[S2]
Georgieva also used her X account to describe the meeting in similar terms. She called it an excellent meeting with Caputo and Central Bank President Santiago Bausili, welcomed improvements in economic fundamentals and resilience anchored in fiscal discipline while many countries struggle with high deficits, and confirmed that both teams are working closely to finalize discussions on the third review of the economic program signed between Argentina and the IMF. According to both Caputo and Georgieva, the technical teams are expected to deliver the result of the review in the coming days.[S1][S2]
What remains to close the third review
The meeting followed a visit by an IMF technical mission to Buenos Aires between September 21 and 29, led by Joyce Wong, to assess the performance of Argentina's economic program. One of the aspects under analysis is compliance with the fiscal targets for the first half of 2026. According to data known so far, Argentina accumulated a primary surplus of 6.29 trillion pesos between January and June, below the 6.86 trillion pesos contemplated in the target agreed with the organization.[S2]
No technical agreement has yet been announced to complete the third review. That step is the condition for unlocking a new disbursement of approximately USD 869 million, which must be approved by the IMF Executive Board once the corresponding evaluation is completed. Caputo said the teams will continue working to finalize the third review but did not specify a date for its conclusion. The relationship with the IMF is closely watched by the Argentine market because of the country's financial commitments and the monitoring of the economic program.[S2]
Lower growth and higher inflation forecasts
In a context of high international volatility, the IMF warned in a document about falling growth forecasts for Argentina. According to the World Economic Outlook report released in recent hours, the organization projects that gross domestic product will increase 2.1% in 2026, compared with the 3.5% it estimated in April and maintained in its July update. The revision implies a cut of 1.4 percentage points. In the report prepared a year ago, the IMF expected Argentina to grow 4% during 2026, so the current projection represents almost half of that initial estimate. The organization also raised its forecast for average annual inflation to 32.5%, from the 30.4% calculated in April.[S1]
For the following year, an election year, the international credit organization expects the economy to keep growing at a higher rate: it estimates 3.5%. That is only half a point less than forecast in the July revision, while inflation for the whole year is placed at 21.2%. Regarding the review of the program's targets, Georgieva highlighted progress on fiscal matters, something the Argentine government had expected to request a waiver for if necessary, given the fall in tax revenue and the accumulation of dollar reserves at the Central Bank.[S1]
