A hike is still the favored bet, but by less
Market pricing puts the likelihood of a quarter-point increase in the Federal Reserve's policy rate at the December meeting at 70.7%, according to TokenPost. That figure stood at 79.6% two days earlier, a decline of 8.9 percentage points. The implied probability that rates remain where they are comes to 29.3%, which leaves a hike as the more probable of the two outcomes in current pricing.[S1]
Those percentages describe expectations built into financial markets rather than any decision by the central bank, TokenPost notes. The drop therefore signals a change in how traders are positioning, not an official signal from the Federal Reserve about its intentions.[S1]
What the Fed actually did in late October
At its October 28, 2026 meeting the Federal Reserve left its target range for the federal funds rate at 3.75% to 4.00%, CryptoTicker reports. The statement was adopted by a ten-to-two vote. The two dissents came from Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack, who wanted the range raised by a quarter point at that meeting, according to the statement.[S2]
The committee's language described an economy expanding at a strong pace, with robust productivity and solid investment, and stated that inflation remains elevated. It also included a commitment that the committee will deliver price stability. CryptoTicker reads the upside dissents as a sign that two voting members judged the current rate too low rather than merely favoring patience.[S2]
Inflation data and the crypto channel
One day after the rate decision, the Commerce Department's statistics unit, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, published September 2026 figures on personal income and outlays. The PCE price index climbed 0.5% from the prior month, or 0.3% once food and energy were excluded. Measured over twelve months, the headline reading was 3.6% while the core figure came in at 3.1%, according to CryptoTicker.[S2]
CryptoTicker argues that a strong economy cuts against rate cuts in this phase, because a central bank facing resilient growth has less reason to ease and more reason to tighten. For Bitcoin and major altcoins, the policy rate functions as the cost of the money used to buy them, so a higher rate makes assets that pay no interest comparatively more expensive to hold.[S2]
