Consumer Confidence Plummets to Lowest Since 2014
US consumer confidence fell in September to its lowest level since April 2014, according to a Conference Board survey released on Tuesday. The headline index dropped 6.7 points to 81.9, down from 88.6 in August. The organization noted that mentions of prices, the cost of goods and services, and especially gasoline and oil prices reached historic highs. The survey was conducted by Toluna, which has a panel of 36 million consumers, between September 1 and 23, during a period of escalating energy prices tied to the war between the United States and Iran.[S1][S2]
The decline was broad-based. The index measuring perceptions of current conditions fell 7.9 points to 109.3, while the expectations index retreated 5.9 points to 63.6, its third consecutive drop. The average inflation expectation for the next twelve months rose to 6.1%, and 68.4% of respondents said they expected higher interest rates within a year. Pessimism increased across all three major political groups, and concerns about employment intensified: 28.4% expect fewer jobs available in the next six months, up from 26.1% in August.[S1]
Energy Costs and Election Stakes
The conflict between the United States and Iran has disrupted oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a key global route for crude transport, and the rise in fuel costs has added pressure on American households while fueling inflation expectations. The deterioration in confidence comes just over a month before the November 3 midterm elections, in which all 435 House seats and 35 of the 100 Senate seats will be contested. Gasoline prices, inflation, and the cost of living are among the economic issues shaping the electoral debate, as the administration of President Donald Trump faces the vote amid the war with Iran and its energy effects.[S1][S2]
