Bitcoin loses a key support level before a heavy news week
Bitcoin began the week on weak footing after losing a support level near $81,000 that had been watched for weeks. The price fell to roughly $79,100 and had not yet returned to test that level as resistance, trading around $80,000. The Nasdaq's rejection at Thursday's high added to the cautious tone, with a close below that level seen as a bearish signal.[S1]
Equities nonetheless finished higher on Monday, October 26, 2026, as a busy stretch of tech earnings and a Federal Reserve rate decision got underway. Technology shares gained on enthusiasm for Anthropic's IPO filing, and US stock futures had risen ahead of the same events. Oil was pulling back, and the Nasdaq was bouncing off support after two consecutive weekly losses.[S1][S6][S7][S8]
Two days, one crowded calendar
Wednesday stands out for how much is packed into one day. At 2:00 PM Eastern (11:00 AM Pacific) the Fed delivers its rate decision, and the chair holds a press conference thirty minutes afterward. Once trading closes, Microsoft and Alphabet release their earnings, with Amazon following a full day later. The commentator anticipates frequent, sharp moves in either direction and says crypto will respond to every one of these developments, extended-hours trading included.[S1]
The week sits inside a broader two-week stretch that outlets describe as pivotal, pairing megacap results and the Fed with the midterm elections. Other coverage frames the period around US GDP data and oil earnings as well. The common thread is a dense run of catalysts that could set the market's direction.[S2][S3][S4][S5]
AI spending becomes the test for tech results
Big technology companies usually beat earnings expectations, which tends to lift the market. This time, according to the commentary, attention centers on AI spending and whether the money committed is producing returns. A beat paired with weak guidance on AI returns could still be sold, and a more hawkish tone than expected from the Fed chair, with oil still elevated, could outweigh strong results entirely.[S1]
The commentator states plainly that the direction of the breakout is unknowable and that anyone claiming otherwise is guessing or selling something. Two approaches are offered for the uncertainty. One is to hold a position into Wednesday with a wider stop and a smaller size, keeping the dollar risk constant while allowing room for news-driven swings. The other is to wait for the first wave of volatility to pass and enter once a direction emerges, accepting a later entry in exchange for not guessing.[S1]
