A crowded calendar with the Fed at its center
The final stretch of the fourth quarter brings an unusually dense schedule, with the UK Budget on Wednesday afternoon as the main domestic item and the Federal Open Market Committee's rate decision arriving later the same day. Mega-cap earnings season also shifts into high gear, as Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet all report. Markets do not expect a hike at the October meeting and instead look for the next increase in December, though the committee retains the option to act sooner.[S1][S2][S3]
Other central banks share the week. The Bank of Canada issues its decision and monetary policy statement, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand does the same, and the European Central Bank concludes the week with its rate call, statement and press conference. Australia's central bank governor, Michele Bullock, is scheduled to speak, and Australian consumer price data for September is also due.[S1]
Gold and the euro hang on the tone
Gold has been softening and now trades near a support zone around $4,000 that has been flagged for some time. A decisive break beneath that level could pull prices back into the mid-$3,000s, with $3,600 identified as the next major floor. A hawkish message from the Fed, or hints that further increases are coming, would be the kind of development capable of unsettling commodities in general.[S1]
The euro is also exposed. EUR/USD sits close to support near $1.12, and a more hawkish Fed combined with a hotter-than-forecast PCE report could push the pair toward support around $1.10. The opposite combination, a Fed tolerant of current inflation and a cooler PCE reading, could lift the euro through resistance near $1.135 and back toward its 50-day moving average, put at roughly $1.144.[S1]
Microsoft: bullish options, stubborn resistance
Consensus estimates point to Microsoft posting fiscal first-quarter profit of $4.72 per share, a 14.3% rise from a year earlier, alongside revenue of $90.1bn, up 16.8%. Capital spending is projected at $46.6bn versus $19.4bn previously. For the second fiscal quarter, analysts expect $4.84 per share, 16.9% higher, on sales of $95.6bn, a 17.6% increase. Shares are anticipated to swing roughly 4.7% following the results.[S1]
Understand this article deeper
Options positioning is heavily bullish, which means that once results are out and implied volatility falls, hedging flows could turn into selling pressure. Call gamma is concentrated near $575, a possible ceiling, while put gamma marks firm support near $495. On the chart, the shares have returned toward record highs but have stalled at resistance around $550, a level tested and rejected three times since 31 July 2025. Support sits near $520; a continued slide after the results would bring $495 into focus, and a break there could open the way to $475 or even $465. Upside looks constrained by the repeated failures at $550 and the call gamma above.[S1]
PCE lands after the Fed, and the data flow runs wide
September personal consumption expenditures data arrives Thursday, a day after the Fed decision, giving markets time to absorb the rate call before inflation adds another layer. Headline PCE is forecast at 0.5% month-on-month, up from 0.3%, with the annual rate rising to 3.6% from 3.4%. Core PCE is expected at 0.3% month-on-month from 0.2%, and 3.1% year-on-year from 3%.[S1]
The week's releases also include Germany's Ifo business climate and GfK consumer confidence survey, the ECB Bank Lending Survey, the BRC shop price index, US ADP employment change, durable goods orders, consumer confidence and new home sales, plus preliminary third-quarter US gross domestic product and personal income and spending. Corporate reports span Boeing, Coca-Cola, HSBC, Visa, Alphabet, Amazon, Intel, Lloyds, Mastercard, Merck, Unilever, GSK and Standard Chartered, among others.[S1]
