Intelligence warnings from Prague and Riga
Speaking with the Guardian in Prague and Riga, senior intelligence officials from the Czech Republic, Latvia and Sweden warned that Russia could soon put NATO's resolve to the test, with one saying an attack might arrive within months rather than years. Their comments came just days after Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk told parliament that assessments pointed to a possible Russian strike on NATO territory using drones or missiles in the near future. French President Emmanuel Macron likewise called party leaders to an emergency meeting over comparable warnings.[S1]
Shaun Walker, the Guardian's special correspondent covering eastern Europe, Ukraine and intelligence, explained that intelligence reporting rarely makes clear whether a source describes a precise intercept of an operation that will almost certainly occur, or vaguer signals assembled by analysts. In his assessment, the current warnings do not match early 2022, when US intelligence repeatedly cautioned that Russia was massing for an invasion and held firm evidence of Kremlin intentions. What struck him most was that his sources agreed to speak on the record, rather than the usual off-the-record arrangement, implying they want their message heard.[S1]
A hybrid war already under way
This coordinated campaign has grown over the four and a half years since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, sharing a common aim: sowing disorder and fear among Kyiv's backers, even as conclusive proof of Russian involvement is hard to obtain because Kremlin security services increasingly hire local operatives through online recruitment. Since the start of this year, unexplained blazes have hit defence sites supplying Ukraine in Italy, Bulgaria, Estonia and Slovakia. A drone carrying explosives was found beside a Ukrainian cargo aircraft at Leipzig airport in Germany. Danish authorities cautioned that Russia is enlisting Danish citizens to sabotage defence companies linked to Ukraine; an Ikea store was torched in Lithuania; and in France, five coffins bearing the phrase 'French soldiers in Ukraine' were placed beneath the Eiffel Tower.[S1]
In Britain, the Rycroft review, published in March, concluded that online disinformation from hostile states including Russia was distorting political debate, while two arsonists with Russian connections who attacked property tied to former prime minister Sir Keir Starmer were imprisoned in June. With tensions mounting, Shaun is unsurprised that some EU politicians bristle at the label 'hybrid war', contending that such direct attacks demand a direct answer. The boundary between peace and war keeps fading as Europe struggles to decide how to react to sabotage that stays beneath the threshold for a military response.[S1]
