June rebound and sectoral performance
Argentina's economic activity, as measured by the Estimador Mensual de Actividad Económica (EMAE), rose 0.8% in June compared to May, according to data released Thursday by the Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos (INDEC). This reversed the 0.6% decline in May and followed a 1.6% drop in April, marking the end of two consecutive monthly falls. On a year-on-year basis, the index increased 2.7%, and the first half of 2026 accumulated a 1.9% rise.[S1][S2][S3][S5]
Twelve of the fifteen sectors that make up the EMAE showed growth compared to June 2025. Fishing led with a 247.6% annual surge, followed by mining and quarrying, which rose 15.6%. Mining was the sector with the greatest positive impact on the index, followed by agriculture, livestock, hunting, and forestry, which grew 4.6%. Together, these two sectors contributed 1.1 percentage points to the annual growth of the index.[S1][S2][S3][S4][S5]
In contrast, three sectors recorded declines compared to June 2025. Public administration and defense, along with mandatory social security plans, fell 1.5%; electricity, gas, and water dropped 0.4%; and education decreased 0.1%. These sectors together subtracted 0.1 percentage points from the annual EMAE result.[S1][S2][S3][S4][S5]
Official celebration and analyst caution
Economy Minister Luis Caputo celebrated the data on his official X account, highlighting that the trend-cycle indicator, which extracts the irregular component to analyze the underlying dynamics of activity, grew 0.2% monthly and accumulated 27 consecutive months of growth, the longest expansionary cycle since the one recorded between June 2009 and August 2011. President Javier Milei also highlighted the result on social media, noting that 13 of 16 sectors showed growth, despite the decline in state activity being part of the official economic policy objectives.[S1][S4]
However, economists tempered the official optimism. Gonzalo Carrera from Equilibra noted that after two months of decline, activity recovered 0.8% monthly and 2.7% annually, driven by primary sectors. He pointed out that for the third consecutive month, non-primary sectors fell, although financial intermediation (2.1%) and industry (1.0%) recovered monthly, while construction and commerce continued to fall by 1%.[S1][S3]
Sergio González from Cohen Aliados Financieros agreed that the growth engines were primary sectors like mining and agriculture, which together explained 1.08 of the 2.69 percentage points of annual EMAE growth, about 40% of the total. He emphasized the two-speed economy, noting that the lagging sectors are precisely the labor-intensive ones: industry, construction, and commerce concentrate most private registered employment, while mining is capital-intensive and generates relatively few jobs per unit of product.[S1][S3]
Outlook and projections
Gabriel Caamaño from Outlier detailed that the second quarter average was 0.9% below the first quarter, and June was 1.2% below December 2025. He confirmed that the start of 2026 has shown dynamism well below expectations. The economic team expects sustained growth in the coming months based on three initiatives: labor reform, Fiscal Innocence, and the concession of 9,000 kilometers of national highways. Of these, only the highway concession has advanced as planned by the government.[S1]
Although both labor reform and Fiscal Innocence received parliamentary approval, the implementation of measures like the Labor Assistance Fund (FAL) was postponed for fiscal reasons. The ruling party plans to present a new Fiscal Innocence project to correct deficiencies in current regulations. Projections from banks and consultancies surveyed by the Central Bank estimated a 0.4% contraction in GDP for the second quarter, with 1.0% growth expected in each of the following two quarters. For all of 2026, the average projection is 2.7% growth, while the World Bank forecasts 3.6%.[S1]
